A scenario is a transparent set of assumptions.
A revenue scenario is not a forecast and it is not a claim about what a creator should earn. It is a way to see the math behind a target. Start with actual offers: subscription price and active subscribers, free-page audience and paid-purchase conversion, paid-post sales, custom requests, and any other defined offer. The useful result is not one “monthly gross” number. It is the visible path from activity to receipts.
Gross, net, and fee basis are different questions.
Gross fan payments are receipts before deductions. A platform deduction reduces that amount. A management fee may be calculated from gross, post-platform net, or another defined base; those are different calculations and must be written plainly in an agreement. The planner makes the visitor choose the fee basis rather than quietly assuming it. It does not represent Aster Nova’s public terms or quote any agency rate.
Free-page planning needs a different conversion assumption.
A $0 subscription can be a deliberate business model. In that case, the relevant scenario is audience × expected paid-purchase conversion × average paid purchase—not a pretend paid-subscriber count. Conversion is an assumption, not a promise, and it may vary dramatically by audience, offer, platform rules, timing, and creative work. Use a conservative range when possible, then see whether the workload required to reach it is sustainable.
Reserve room for costs and records.
A planning model is more honest when it includes operating costs and a creator-selected tax/reserve line. It cannot calculate someone’s tax obligation. Keep business records that show income and expenses and retain the documents behind them. The IRS says a recordkeeping method should clearly reflect gross income and expenses and that supporting documents substantiate those records. Bring a qualified tax professional into decisions that require tax advice.
Put this into practice
- Build a conservative scenario and a stretch scenario using the same offers.
- Change only one assumption at a time and observe the effect on take-home and capacity.
- Keep the source documents behind actual income and expenses separate from this planning tool.